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Thirty Capital Market Update: Stellar Nonfarm Payroll Numbers

Last week saw a ton of intra-week volatility despite rates remaining relatively level overall. The 2-year yield rose 2 BPS, and the 10-year dropped 11 BPS WoW. Rates dropped about 13 BPS Wednesday morning after ADP Employment numbers came in at 107,000 vs. 150,000 expected.

Fed Chair Powell’s comments after their 2-day meeting didn’t move the market much. His comments indicated their stance is moving from a tightening bias to more of a neutral bias. Before making a firm decision on rates, they’ll need evidence inflation is moving to 2%. They’re likely targeting the May or June meeting at this stage.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll numbers were stellar, coming in at 353k vs 185k expected. Average hourly earnings rose 4.5% YoY vs. 4.1% expected. Rates on the short end of the curve jumped almost 20 BPS after this report. It was a bumpy ride despite rates finishing the week relatively similarly to where they started.

This week should be somewhat light for economic news. We have ISM numbers today and Jobless Claims on Wednesday. There are a few Treasury auctions coming up, including a $42B 10-year auction on Wednesday. Look out for some commentary from Powell’s “lieutenants” and any news from the Middle East, which could cause some volatility.

In general, we’re seeing more liquidity and more mortgage activity in the CRE space. Hopefully this is a sign of more stability to come.

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